Ivan Sand appearing on Points de vue – Le Figaro

Interview · Geopolitics · Defence

Ivan Sand

In the President’s Shadow

How are military decisions really made when an external crisis becomes a political crisis?

Interview by Julien Laurenceau Porte

In the gravest crises, the state may sometimes have to decide faster than it can fully understand. Only minutes may separate still-uncertain information from an order that puts lives, a diplomatic position and sometimes political authority itself at stake. The difficulty lies in this paradox: the more strategic the decision, the more it would seem to require time, doubt and dissent; the more the situation deteriorates, the scarcer those resources become. Around the President of the Republic, military advice does not eliminate this tension: it forms part of a web of constraints in which the safety of nationals, operational capabilities, logistics, diplomacy, communications, the domestic political calendar and long-term effects all intersect. A decision, therefore, is never merely the extension of expertise. It is the moment when partial bodies of knowledge, carried by institutions with different priorities, must be ordered by a responsibility that cannot itself be delegated.

It is at this intersection that Ivan Sand’s perspective finds its singularity. An officer in the French Air and Space Force who holds a doctorate in geography, as well as a researcher in geopolitics, a lecturer and a novelist, he approaches crisis through roles that do not merge: the military mission defines objectives and means; academic analysis demands distance, a plurality of viewpoints and dissent; teaching tests certainties against other forms of knowledge; fiction, finally, makes institutional relationships, rivalries and grey areas perceptible in ways abstraction cannot always achieve. The novel thus becomes not a document about power, but a narrative laboratory for its dilemmas: it allows us to follow the collision between the short term and the future, security imperatives and domestic politics, without confusing plausibility with revelation. At a time when drones are temporarily shifting the balance between sword and shield, and artificial intelligence is delivering more information without guaranteeing its reliability, one decisive question remains: how can human judgement be preserved when technology speeds up analysis but the time available for choice remains limited? It is in this interval — between what the state knows, what it anticipates and what it must assume responsibility for — that Ivan Sand’s reflection begins.

JLPDécryptage

Your novel, L’Honorable Correspondant, features a former member of the military confronted with the grey areas of intelligence and strategic decision-making. Beyond the plot, what did you seek to reveal about how French institutions function when political, military and diplomatic interests intersect?

Ivan Sand

One of the distinctive features of my first novel is that its main character does not come from the intelligence world. I think that is fairly uncommon in spy novels. The hero quickly finds himself at the centre of a rivalry between the French and Israeli services, with stakes that extend far beyond him.

The book also shows the interconnection between intelligence and the cyber start-up ecosystem, particularly in Israel. Here, the objective is not necessarily to steal technological capabilities, but to spy on a company’s clients on behalf of a state.

It is also a novel that examines the infiltration of agents or the handling of sources over a very long period. We see how a service can invest in an individual in order to obtain results many years later.

JLPDécryptage

The President of the Republic’s personal military staff remains largely unknown to the general public, even though it plays an essential role in the dialogue between political power and the armed forces. How would you define its true function in a democracy, and where does military advice end and political decision-making begin?

Ivan Sand

The chief of the President’s personal military staff is the President’s closest military adviser. On a daily basis, he provides expertise on defence matters with the support of a small team of military personnel.

From a fictional perspective, this position seemed interesting to me because it brought out the interconnection between a state’s political and military concerns, particularly in a time of crisis.

Decision-makers — political and military alike — often have only a few minutes to make crucial decisions based on fragmentary information. In the novel, I try to show the many parameters that come into play in the President’s decisions; some are purely logistical, others diplomatic, ideological, etc. Sometimes it is necessary to choose between very short-term concerns and others whose consequences will only become apparent several years later.

In the novel, placing the country in a period of cohabitation naturally adds to this complexity and allowed me to emphasise the links between French domestic politics and the conduct of international affairs.

JLPDécryptage

When a crisis requires operational urgency, diplomatic constraints and political responsibility to be reconciled, where does the real arbitration take place? At what point does strategic logic cease to be exclusively military and become a profoundly political decision?

Ivan Sand

I think all these issues are permanently intertwined. This is what I try to show in the book when the advisers file through the President’s office, each with their own priorities — security, diplomatic, communications, political and so on.

It is natural for each entity to defend its own area. Nevertheless, in a security crisis such as the one that provides the starting point of the book, the lives of French nationals necessarily come first.

At a later stage, when it is a matter of defending France’s standing or protecting industrial secrets, as in the second half of the story, there are many trade-offs between short- and long-term benefits. Then everything comes into play, of course, whether it is the next international summit, forthcoming electoral deadlines and so on.

Ivan Sand at a bookshop event
Ivan Sand at a bookshop event.

JLPDécryptage

For the past three years, conflicts have shown that a drone costing a few thousand euros can sometimes neutralise systems worth several million. Are we witnessing a military revolution comparable to the advent of aviation or nuclear weapons, or are these demonstrations misleading at the strategic level? What does this development change in the very way air power is conceived?

Ivan Sand

Drones are reshaping today’s conflicts; the war in Ukraine is the clearest example. Nevertheless, I think this is a moment when the sword has gained the advantage over the shield, but that the balance will be restored in the near future.

Counter-drone systems are under development in many countries and will certainly soon prove effective at costs far lower than older anti-aircraft defence systems, which were designed to shoot down much more expensive equipment.

I would describe it as an evolution rather than a revolution.

JLPDécryptage

Artificial intelligence promises to accelerate analysis, planning and sometimes even decision-making. But when an operation engages a state’s political responsibility, is speed always a strategic advantage, or is there a risk that technology will reduce the time needed for doubt, which is nevertheless essential to any decision about war?

Ivan Sand

I am not sure that artificial intelligence will lead us to make strategic decisions much more quickly. The tempo is generally dictated by operational and logistical constraints. If AI can help with decision-making, so much the better, but political and military leaders will always use all the time available to them, which is often not very much!

No one imagines that AI will replace human responsibility and, therefore, the doubt that is necessary in this kind of decision-making. It provides additional information that can be decisive but is itself not always very reliable. This is something the military is well aware of.

JLPDécryptage

You are an officer, researcher, lecturer and now novelist. Do these four perspectives sometimes lead you to analyse the same crisis differently? Which takes precedence when events accelerate — and which, ultimately, do you miss most when acting in one of the other three roles?

Ivan Sand

I think I am able to adapt to the environment and, above all, to the people I am addressing. University students expect me to provide an in-depth analysis of recent conflicts, with a critical eye or, at the very least, the ability to put myself in the shoes of the different actors in order to analyse their actions and decisions as objectively as possible.

When I write a novel, I draw above all on my creativity, even though I like to construct realistic plots. The aim is then to make the reader think, but above all to evoke emotions and make them grow attached to certain characters.

My role as an officer is perhaps the simplest, since I am given a clear mission, with means and objectives. Some of these roles can overlap; the armed forces also call on our creativity, particularly when it comes to anticipating our adversaries’ reactions.

Likewise, teaching and research are naturally quite closely connected. I draw extensively on the conclusions of my doctoral thesis in my classes, and I appreciate it when some students bring me new knowledge or challenge my views.

Cover of Ivan Sand’s novel L’Honorable Correspondant
L’Honorable Correspondant, a novel by Ivan Sand.

About Ivan Sand

Ivan Sand is an officer in the French Air and Space Force who holds a doctorate in geography, and is also a researcher in geopolitics, a lecturer and a novelist. He earned his doctorate at Sorbonne University, where his thesis examined the political and military geography of French armed forces’ air power projection around the world since 1945. He also holds a Research Master’s degree in Geopolitics from the French Institute of Geopolitics, for which he received the examining panel’s commendation, as well as a Master of Science in Strategy and Organisation Consultancy from EDHEC Business School. His academic path began with a scientific preparatory course at Lycée Charlemagne.

A lecturer at Sorbonne University since 2020, Ivan Sand has also taught geopolitics and cartographic analysis at the University of Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines and Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée University, and supervised dissertations at ENSAE ParisTech. From 2012 to 2020, he worked with Diploweb.com as a writer and adviser, publishing geopolitical analyses and contributing to the magazine’s development. A novelist since 2025, he uses fiction to explore the mechanisms of intelligence, institutional relationships and the dilemmas of strategic decision-making, notably in L’Honorable Correspondant and Un état-major particulier.

Julien Laurenceau Porte Interview by Julien Laurenceau Porte Founder of jlpdecryptage.com
Work with me
Support JLPDécryptage.com AI: see our methodology
← Back to home